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  #61  
Old 01-31-2017, 02:04 AM
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 31, 2017

The GBP/USD pair’s activity has been very disappointing during the past 24 hours, which could be largely due to the fact that the market is nearing the end of the month. Towards the end of every month, the UK government is required to pay its membership fees to the European Union, and this usually amounts to 1 billion euros, and this usually induces volatility in the movement of the sterling pound. These monthly dues from the UK are usually masked by the banks which process these transactions, but these show more often than not, and this contributes to the drop in the value of the GBP.

Market analysts have constantly saying that the direction of the sterling pound would most likely be influenced by the Brexit process, and this has been already seen with the increased pressure on the GBP/USD pair. This particular pressure on the pound is expected to continue until such time that the Brexit process is finally completed, and this is also the reason why the pound climbed up to trading highs near 1.2700 but eventually corrected and is now expected to hit 1.2300 points in the short term. The GBP will remain to be one of the weaker currencies, and although there might be a few intermittent reversions at the expense of the dollar weakness, these are not expected to follow through in the long term.

There are no major news releases from the UK set to be released today but the US will be releasing its consumer confidence data. Month end flows are expected to come in today as this is the last day of the month, and traders are advised to take the necessary precautions to protect themselves from the onslaught of additional volatility today.
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  #62  
Old 01-31-2017, 03:06 AM
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 31, 2017

The EUR/USD pair was subject to a lot of volatility during the past trading sessions. The currency pair initially began yesterday’s session on a positive note, but eventually dropped in value as the USD weakened across the board and negative concerns and uncertainties in the international economy increased, which then adversely affected all currencies including the EUR/USD pair. The currency pair has since then moved towards 1.0620 points before slightly recovering during the North American trading session and climbed up back to 1.0700 points.

Trump’s immigration ban has not sat well with a lot of world leaders, and this has rattled the entirety of the financial market, with a lot of market players losing confidence over the US dollar. Trump’s newly-laid out economic and foreign policies is also a cause for concern in the market, and the effects of these uncertainties are starting be felt in the markets as well. The EUR/USD could possibly continue its consolidation for today since there are expected month end flows for today. The market is also expecting to see some position adjustments for this year.

For today’s trading session, ECB governor Mario Draghi will be releasing a statement during the London session, but this is not expected to lend that much volatility into the market as Draghi very rarely gives out anything substantial with regards to the present economic status of the European Union in his speeches.
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  #63  
Old 01-31-2017, 03:25 AM
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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: January 31, 2017

Many investors await for the release of GDP scheduled tomorrow. Meanwhile, the decline in oil prices shocked the commodity currencies including the Canadian dollar. Moreover, the terrorist attack on the Quebec mosque last Sunday further made a slight impact against the Loonie.

Meanwhile, the greens resumed its short-term bullish signal on Monday and it resumed to climb higher subsequent to a short period of consolidation amid Asian hours. The USDCAD strengthen during the earlier trades in Europe and advance to 1.3190. But the upside impetus stalled at 1.3158 level where the major stayed prior to the opening of NA session.

The spot is confined under the moving averages as indicated in the 4-hour chart. The 50-EMA made an upward crossover to the 100-EMA. The 50 and 200 EMA are neutral while 100-EMA en route lower. Resistance entered 1.3190 level, support plunge in at 1.3120.

The MACD increased which signaled sluggish stance for sellers. RSI lies around the neutral territory.

The 1.3120 support region paid attention by the market. A gap within this region would open an opportunity for the 1.3090 range, lowering to 1.3050.
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  #64  
Old 01-31-2017, 03:47 AM
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: January 31, 2017

The UK calendar seems empty on Monday as the markets fixate on the Bank of England on Wednesday.

The GBPUSD break higher as the new week starts. The spot plunge towards 1.2600 as the price found a decent hurdle. The Cable rebounded through the barrier and turned lower in the opening which closed the bullish gap. The spot kept pressured around 1.2500 amid EU hours, however, did not make it regain the level. The sterling pound stayed overhead of the moving averages as shown in the 4-hour chart. Moreover, the 100-EMA crossed above the 200-EMA. The 100 and 50-EMAs ployed northbound while the 200-EMA appeared to be neutral-bearish. Resistance touched 1.2600 level, support sits in 1.2500 handle.

The MACD histogram fell off which signaled weak position against the buyers. The RSI indicator departed from the overvalued area and pointed southbound.

The technicals prefer a downside movement. If the 1.2500 level gapped lower it will direct the cable pair to 1.2400.
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  #65  
Old 01-31-2017, 04:15 AM
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 31, 2017

The single European currency takes no attention to the upbeat of Spain’s GDP and it continued to weaken on Monday. The markets await for the impending meeting of the ECB while there are speculations the Consumer Price Index would be in the green.

The EURUSD break upwards in the daily open yesterday. The price reaches the region 1.0700 up to 1.0740 amid Asian hours.

The negative stance of the dollar was reversed as the Asian session took place. Bullish investors were unable to resume their gains as they decided to give way to the sellers. While the bears managed to lead the spot towards 1.0700. Before the opening of the New York trades, a renewed selling interest developed.

The pair made an even break downwards and touched 1.0650 level. The price pushed the 50-EMA lower while the 100-EMA was tested as indicated in the 4-hour chart during the middle session of Europe. The 100 and 50-EMA directed upwards, 200-EMA is flat. Resistance is mentioned at 1.0700 region, support is shown at 1.0650 handle.

The MACD lies at the middle point. Should the indicator arrive in the positive zone will indicate added strength for the buyers, however, an entry through the negative territory will signal seller’s ability to dominate the market. RSI comes in the neutral zone, en route southwards.

It is recommended for the 1.0750 resistance to test again prior to the pair’s rally as it approaches 1.8000 range. But the spot might change and it becomes bearish for this moment. If the price focuses on the mark below 1.0650, the 1.0550 level is possible to open.
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  #66  
Old 01-31-2017, 05:34 AM
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January 31, 2017
Positive Outlook on Japanís Economic Growth Forecast caused BOJ to Maintain its Policy
The Bank of Japan adjusted higher its economic forecast on Tuesday. However, the monetary policy remained the same which is already anticipated. The GDP forecast for the year increased by 14% from 1.0% in October for this fiscal year. Its economic forecast was raised by 1.5% from 1.3% for this year and 1.1 percent from 0.9% in the following fiscal year. Alongside, the inflation of 2% is anticipated to increase as well for the fiscal year in 2018 since the medium to long-term inflation expectations has a positive outlook and halts is recent decline.

The Labor market is also doing well with rates tightening and the downtrend of the commodity prices is pushed higher by the increase in demand for International commodity prices. The currency yield-curve policy control approved on later September meeting of the central bank is expected to maintain its current stand despite the uncertainty brought by the new U.S. administration as one of their top trading trading partner.
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  #67  
Old 01-31-2017, 05:40 AM
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Janury 31, 2017

Germany Oust China as the World’s Largest Exporter

Based on the report of Ifo Research Institute, the trade surplus account of Germany broke its own record of $297 billion last 2016, the figures beat China’s maximum which made Germany become the richest exporter worldwide. The total output is equal to 8.6 percent breaking the projected 6 percent of the European Commission. In 2015, the country’s current account is about $271 billion.

Moreover, the EU executive together with the United States advises the highly populated European country to improve imports as well as the domestic demand as a means to lessen the imbalances in the global economy along with the international increase in fuel involves the euro region. However, Germany ignored this statement, claiming that the domestic demand boosted with the aid of the introduction of the minimum wage in 2015. The increase in state pensions last year also supported the economic aggregate spending. Moreover, the China’s surplus in 2016 is approximately $245 billion because of depleted exports according on the statistics from the Munich-based think tank.

On the other hand, Sigmar Gabriel, the 57-year old Vice Chancellor, mentioned that Germany’s current account is possible to decline for 2017 due to uncertainties within the global trade.
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  #68  
Old 01-31-2017, 05:54 AM
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January 31, 2017

European Equities Fall as Trump’s Trade Plans Unravel

European stocks plummeted on Monday after investors assessed the possible implications of President Trump’s recent immigration ban in the US, particularly the possibility of political unrest and fallout as a result of the said ban. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index saw losses in the mining, energy, and banking sector, with the benchmark dropping down by 1.1%. Meanwhile, Greek stocks experienced the largest drop in the western European market as a result of concerns regarding Greece’s bailout dues. In general, the international market is alarmed that Trump might soon implement isolationist policies after implementing his ban on Islamic nations.
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  #69  
Old 02-02-2017, 10:25 PM
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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: February 2, 2017

The USD/CAD pair was subject to a lot of pressure during the past trading sessions, majority of this pressure caused by Trumpís implementing policies on trade, immigration, and currencies which has led to a large of number of market players into thinking that Trumpís onslaught of policies might soon lead to a trade and currency war against other major economies.

Trumpís movements has not boded well for the US dollar after the dollar weakened significantly across the board and has caused the USD/CAD to experience a slight reversion at 1.3100 as a result of highly positive employment readings for the region. However, this bounce in the pair diffused quickly as the announcement from the FOMC was unable to induce some positivity within the market, causing a USD sell-off and has caused the USD/CAD to retreat back to 1.3000 and is currently trading weakly just under this particular region. The areas of 1.2960 and 1.3000 has recently been tagged as a highly critical support region and the currency pair might experience a major trend change if the pair manages to break cleanly through this region, and with the pair nearing this range, traders are advised to closely watch the subsequent movements of the currency pair.

There are no major economic readings to be released from both Canada and US for today, although the US will be releasing its unemployment claims data. The weakness in the dollar is expected to continue for today and could cause the USD/CAD to continuously consolidate while the market waits for the readings of the NFP report which is scheduled to be released tomorrow.
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  #70  
Old 02-02-2017, 10:41 PM
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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 2, 2017

The EUR/USD pair’s strong stance for the whole month of January was mostly due to dollar weakness as a result of Trump’s recent policies and brash sentiments which has affected the country’s economy. The market initially had a positive outlook for the US dollar after the Fed hinted at additional rate hikes in the coming months, however they failed to consider the Trump administration’s ability to have a major effect on the world economy.

Immediately after Donald Trump assumed office, his administration already made on good on his campaign policies such as building a Mexican border wall and implementing an immigration ban in the US, which has sparked outrage among several world leaders and US citizens. His team also made major changes in Obamacare and has also proceeded to ban immigrants from certain Muslim countries. This has caused widespread concern in the market and has led to dollar sell-offs and has enabled the EUR/USD pair to close down the month of January near the critical resistance barrier of 1.0800 points.

For the month of February, there is an expected onslaught of major economic data to be released which includes the FOMC minutes meeting and the NFP data from the US, but the market is most likely to put more emphasis on Trump’s governance and his future implementing policies. The euro might eventually crack and plummet once the dollar regains its footing and starts going back up, with the euro possibly returning to its monthly lows last December.
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  #71  
Old 02-02-2017, 10:57 PM
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 2, 2017

The GBP/USD pair had a generally good run for January in spite of the fact that the Trump administration has begun to take its reins in the US economy and started implementing policies which has adversely affected the market and the international economy as well. This has then resulted to a major sell-off in the USD which has helped in boosting the value of the GBP/USD pair. This particular currency pair is also the only pair which has increased in value due to the pound strength, making it very attractive for the pound bulls.

Theresa May has also finally clarified her stance and point of action for the Brexit process and has also stated that the UK will be exiting completely from the Eurozone in order to establish a completely different trade relationship with the region. In addition, the SC has also ruled that the invocation of the Article 50 must first undergo deliberation and approval by the Parliament excluding Scotland, Wales, and Ireland, which lended support for the currency pair and induced it to climb up to 1.2650 points.

For the month of February, market players will be mainly focusing on the movement of the USD as the Trump administration implement more policies. But this does not mean that the market will be focusing less on Brexit, since the UK government will finally be carrying out its plans for the nation. But there is still a major sell-off expected in the GBP/USD pair since there is still the lingering Brexit process in spite of the highly positive economic data coming from the US.
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  #72  
Old 02-02-2017, 11:59 PM
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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: February 2, 2017

The Bank of New Zealand disclosed a mixed data as of yesterday. Meanwhile, the Jobless Rate came in negative. The Employment Change matched the expectations and the Participation Rate increased. The bulls continued to handle the market. The NZD continued to reverse its Tuesday’s low seen at 0.7250 and made a minor reversal in the mid-EU session. The spot nearly touched 0.7300 upon the easing of buying pressure. The price rebounded in the 100-EMA shown in the 1-hour chart. The spot is sandwiched between the 50 and 100-EMAS. The moving averages preserved its bullishness mentioned in the same chart.

Resistance is at 0.7300, support is at 0.7250 range. The MACD is trading on the upside. The RSI lies around the neutral territory. According to the 4-hour chart, a bullish sentiment dominated the market. A break on top of 0.7300 would suggests an increase through 0.7350.
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  #73  
Old 02-03-2017, 12:15 AM
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GBP/USD Technical Analysis: February 2, 2017

The Manufacturing PMI of the United Kingdom met its projected result where the British currency got some support. The sterling successfully removes its losses yesterday. The bullish trend currently reigns over the market.

The buyers found a hurdle around the 1.2600 level and retreated amid Asian hours. The GBP/USD keep moving closer to 1.2600 region prior to the London opening. The buyers were able to push the barrier throughout the middle session of the European hours and resumed its bullishness eventually. The Cable remain to develop on top of the moving averages indicated in the 4-hour chart. The 100-EMA cross the 200-EMA in an up direction. The 100 and 50-EMAs preserved their bullish pattern while 200-EMA kept a bearish-neutral stance. Resistance touched 1.2700, support lies at 1.2600.

The MACD histogram is situated in the centerline. If the indicator approaches the negative zone, it will imply added strength for the sellers while an entry towards the positive territory will signal buyers ability to manage the market in general. RSI proceeds in the overvalued area.

The pair is possible to move near the 1.2700 mark .
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  #74  
Old 02-03-2017, 12:29 AM
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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: February 2, 2017

The American dollar remained in the pressured area on the back of the remarks made by the trade advisor of D.Trump, accusing the countries China, Germany and Japan about exploitation over undervalued currencies.

Moreover, the single European currency obtained support from the positive figures of inflation within the euro region. The investors currently awaits for the Fed meeting.

The ascending trend of EURUSD remained unchanged on Wednesday. The euro kept intact versus its U.S rival following the rally during the morning trades on Tuesday. The buyers have consolidated their gains as it grasp the spot in the flat trend under the level 1.0800. The price pushed the 50-EMA towards a higher point as seen in the 4-hour chart. The spot is confined overhead the moving averages. The 50 and 100-EMAs preserved a bullish stance while 200-EMA was in the flat lining. Resistance approached 1.0800, support hit 1.0750 mark.

The MACD increased which signaled buyer’s strength. RSI stayed in the overvalued territory after it left the neutral zone.

The bulls were able to lead the overall mark. We will impose a buy order in case the pair made a breakout near the 1.8000 resistance level. A close on top of the barrier will generate gain through 1.07500. Furthermore, the hawkish comments of Yellen could possibly bring back the sellers to the market. The most possible scenario is a dipped on the lower point of 1.0750.
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  #75  
Old 02-03-2017, 12:32 AM
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GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: February 2, 2017

The GBP/JPY pair broke higher than the Tuesday candle on Wednesday's trading session. This indicates a bullish tone for the pair after breaking above the hammer pattern on Tuesday implying for the price to move higher while a strong resistance is found at 145 handle. Hence, it is possible for the price to fall which would be a buying opportunity in the short-term charts. If the price breaks higher than the current psychological level, the price could further go up towards the 148 handle. On the other hand, it may not be favorable for selling the pair since the 140 level sits as a support level.
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